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Felicity Hayes-McCoy, bestselling author of The Library at the Edge of The World, was born in Dublin, Ireland. Follow @UMumble. After Sapolsky mentioned a study that I know researchers have failed to replicate, I waited for him to discuss the subsequent controversy. Foreign aid isn’t just a straight per capita number, though. Perhaps this is because, given the “replication crisis” in psychology, the news was not terribly surprising. Greetings Once Again Gainers, INTRO During some downtime, I've taken the time to write down some stuff related to my gaining experience. OG Moderator's 2020-2021 Cycle Recap. I not only believed it was a problem I still believe it's a problem, and I think everyone else should as well. The replication crisis in Science. When the pastor at the church hesitated to baptize TOF on the grounds that the parish was German and the name was Flynn -- "Take him to St. Bernard's. When I was younger I hated to read any comments that teachers made on my work. Intro In a bold revolt against the tyranny of the Lindy effect, I recently finished Leidy Klotz’s month-old book Subtract: The Untapped Science of Less. Of more immediate concern, the pressure for scientific knowledge to increase has lead to a massive system of “publish or perish” which has in turn created the replication crisis. Skip to content. It’s important because it poses a significant risk of suicidal behavior, because it causes a lot of suffering, and because sex offenders can drastically reduce other people’s progress toward their goals. Replication Markets: replicationmarkets.com. Gender stereotypes are not accurate: a replication of Martin (1987) using diagnostic vs. self-report and behavioral criteria. Rewards are monetary, but only given out to the top N forecasters, and … Heck did you know there is … ... How the replication crisis illustrates some of the failings of science. Place a -before a word to exclude posts containing that word: -tripcode Place quotes around phrases to find pages containing the phrase: "I am a filthy tripcode user" SlateStarCodex. Perhaps this is because, given the “replication crisis” in psychology, the news was not terribly surprising. The new year and the new decade are upon us, and with them have come the inevitable resolutions to live better in some way or another. Simmons et al. Although we do not need to take a stance on this, note that if frontier Max Fisher, whom the New York Times assigns to writes its Big Think "Interpreter" essays, explains Clearly, there has been something of a mental health breakdown in America, although coinciding less with Trump than with the Great Awokening of 2013--???. [VENT] The weed-out/gatekeeping mentality in engineering school does a huge disservice to the field. 1 didn’t replicate, and the replication found the opposite effect with a much larger sample size (which you link to in your article) One is a Forbes article that cites a variety of articles, two of which I looked into and didn’t say at all what the Forbes article said they say, with … Applied Divinity Studies. What’s useful instead: understanding which specific types and sources of knowledge are reliable and which are not (the replication crisis, why Leamer deserves a Nobel). Bias Against Conservatives "Skeptics In The Pub" started in London in 1999 as an informal social event designed to promote fellowship and social networking among scientific skeptics, free … ‘People, ideas, machines — in that order!’ Colonel Boyd. Psychologist Stuart Ritchie discusses with Ivan six things which he thinks should be better known.Stuart Ritchie is a Lecturer in the Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre at King's Col...– Ouça o Stuart Ritchie de Better Known instantaneamente no seu tablet, telefone ou navegador - sem fazer qualquer download. ↩ Something something This has more on these arguments. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period. [1] Against the Grey Lady we have Cathy Young, Robby Soave, Micah Meadowcroft, Matthew Yglesias, Freddie DeBoer, Scott Aaronson, Noah Smith, and Dan Drezner, as well as Scott Alexander himself. Indeed, the number of Syrians in Denmark. Gordon (2016) argues that the strong US productivity growth between 1996 and 2004 was a temporary blip and that productivity growth will, at best, return to the lower growth rates of 1973–1996. 2020. 51 votes, 45 comments. REPLICATION RATES psychology RP:P 39 % psychology ManyLabs 1-3 30-77 % economics EERP 61 % social sciences SSRP (Science & Nature) 62 % biomedical Amgen trials (Begley & Ellis, 2012) 11 % biomedical RP: Cancer biology not even wrong Inclusive writings of Katja Grace. One of the most common such resolutions is to read more books–either left with that vague wording or given a specific target like 30 nonfiction books total or 10 books written by women. Only if there's wifi. So we thought it might be a good idea to clear up some of the … Felicity Hayes-McCoy discusses with Ivan six things which she thinks should be better known. Psychologist Stuart Ritchie discusses with Ivan six things which he thinks should be better known.Stuart Ritchie is a Lecturer in the Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre at King's Col... – Lyssna på Stuart Ritchie av Better Known direkt i din mobil, surfplatta eller webbläsare - utan app. It comes down to the notion that science worth citing ought to be reproducible and often isn’t (sometimes for bad reasons). Hanyu is a graduate student who studies network sciences. MASTERPOST: Before I start, if the mods don't think this essay is appropriate for the subreddit then feel free to remove it. Those drives will lead to anti-social and dangerous behaviour if not explicitly countered. I propose a reality TV show, Replication Lab!, where every week they try to replicate one of the most famous experiments from the past few years. Technologies that had their origins in the digital revolution of the last two decades of the 20th century have driven multiple paradigm shifts in the understanding of the causality, diagnosis/prognosis, and treatment of human diseases (Oellrich et al., 2016, Topol, 2012, Wachter, 2015).Conceptually, these advances have positioned the global biomedical research … Was told this deep dive would fit better here than in letstalkmusic.Would love to know your thoughts as well. Blanderson Snooper here, back with another page of toilet reading for all you Apes. That, and the replication crisis. Personal website of Gwern Branwen (writer, self-experimenter, and programmer): topics: psychology, statistics, technology, deep learning, anime. One of the most common such resolutions is to read more books–either left with that vague wording or given a specific target like 30 nonfiction books total or 10 books written by women. This is to say nothing of the replication crisis evident in scientific research in several disciplines, including … “SlateStarCodex Gives a Graduation Speech ... where some things are pretty darned solid despite all the frothy arguments that go on about the replication crisis. 2021.04.15 00:14 aaronb50 The secret of Wikipedia's success My biggest hesitation in curating this post was: People have probably already read it on SSC. Users in this case were probably wrong; this is a straightforward article about the replication crisis, not a story about ESP. Note: this is from my personal blog here. The title and headings of this post allude to the fact that the replication crisis has redrawn the topography of science, especially in social psychology, and I can see that to people such as Fiske who’d adapted to the earlier lay of the land, these changes can feel catastrophic. Yesterday I wrote about fake experts and credentialism, but left open the question of how to react. Note: this is from my personal blog, here. Bedroom tinkering - that's a very very good point, and one I'd completely not considered. Psychiatric Genetics Primer Psychiatric Genetics is the study of the role of genetics in the development of mental disorders. Okay, but what if all you see is the arguments over whether the moon landing was real, and as far as you know, that’s all there is to see? Another guy didn't even try to hypnotize me, just tried to do shitty roleplay ("{{say pink}}"). Home Home, current page. Bias Against Conservatives The rocket alignment problem If people talked about the problem of space travel the way they talked about AI... - Eliezer Yudkowsky 7qk. But if this has been known for years, where is the replication crisis? Not related to the book review, but I'm posting it here so Scott sees it: The comments seem to have vanished from slatestarcodex.com since the formatting (blue header, gray background, &c.) was restored, & have been missing from unsongbook.com for several weeks at least. these are leaders in their field. 2021.05.17 16:35 No_Reputation_9528 OG Moderator's 2020-2021 Cycle Recap 2 years ago. The problem is that replication is an unglamorous business; researchers would much rather do the sexier work of pushing forward knowledge with new results. I now have a plan, I'm going to start in 2000 and cover every WS loser until 2015 (I like to give them at least 5 seasons to shake out), … I feel like every couple of months we get a result that could best be summed up as “no matter how bad you thought things were, they’re actually worse”. Sex Roles, 32, 583-600. Hey guys, I just released my first iOS app Gala. 2020-09-11 What's Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It: Reflections After Reading 2578 Papers; ... SlateStarCodex. Not Obama’s…not letting a crisis go to waste merely served to stretch the crisis out. Arbital Arbital is the place for crowdsourced, intuitive math explanations. It is an essay on pure Biblical academia and I can't find any other appropriate subreddits to posts on. For instance, Richard Ngo agrees here, and Eric Drexler makes a related argument here, section 6.4. SlateStarCodex deleted because NYT wants to dox Scott 2020-06-23T07:51:30.859Z ... (beware replication crisis and yadada) that women prefer men with virtue ethics over utilitarians; One reason might be that virtue ethics constrains people much more effectively than “consequentialism,” where you’re your own auditor. Science works as well (replication crisis aside) but even the best results in social science (the closest parallel to religion) have been arrived at by testing a few hundred people over the course of a few months. Another guy didn't even try to hypnotize me, just tried to do shitty roleplay ("{{say pink}}"). The past decade has been a bruising one for experimental psychology. Yesterday I took the #2 bus up Sunset to the Arclight theater in Hollywood to see the documentary Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief*. Basement Vapor Barrier and Insulation. xynchronicity. There may be a crisis in politics. The great thing about science is that discoveries often lead to new and deeper understandings of how different factors work together to produce outcomes. On a longer-term note, if you know there’s a replication crisis in scientific research, that should be shaking up your trust in published papers. ZimerMan A new replication crisis: Research that is less likely to be true is cited more quickes National hiring experiments reveal 2:1 preference for women on STEM tenure track (2015) ZimerMan Video Games Inspire Great UX (2019) Joshua Angrist of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the craft of econometrics--how to use economic thinking and statistical methods to make sense of data and uncover causation. Slate Star Codex is a blog by Scott Alexander about human cognition, politics … . All of which is to say, as I so often do, I hope the optimists are right, but I think the challenges are … 6.1. Replication Markets is a project where volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study’s results will be replicated with high power. Obama’s recovery was the most anemic in history. The publication of a paper by Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn (2011) entitled “False-positive psychology” drew attention to problems with the way in which research was often conducted in our field, which meant that many results could not be trusted. Psychiatric Implications of Mitochondrial Disorders. So, I'm in complete agreement that differences between populations are a poor explanation for the gender imbalance in … Last week, the American Philosophical Association (APA) issued a Code of Conduct. Unfortunately, the title is so bad that the thread is swamped with people who'd rather discuss ESP. The Tracer Replication Tool is the first of a series of research tools we are creating at QRI specifically designed with psychedelic phenomenology in mind. The peer review process is the best system we have at the moment, but it is also problematic, and some deeply flawed papers do get through. Klotz’s central argument is that individuals and societies systematically neglect subtraction as a means of change, and that this leaves plenty of low-hanging fruit for those willing to embrace it. His primary reason for this is shoddiness of climate research, and research in general, which has proved correct with the ongoing replication crisis. The recent “replication crisis” in social science has found that many of the most widely accepted findings do not hold up under scrutiny – in many cases, repeating the original experiments does not yield the same result. A better title, synthesized from the last graf of the introduction, might be "Daryl Bem, ESP, and the Replication Crisis". So we need to make replications more glamorous. This is from American Splendor: Mattress Guy 1: So It’s the humor of the fact that humor is possible in such circumstances. What’s useful instead: understanding which specific types and sources of knowledge are reliable and which are not (the replication crisis, why Leamer deserves a Nobel). Here is the original New York Times piece that started the controversy. Many mental disorders are highly heritable. ... More posts from the slatestarcodex community. Eliezer Yudkowsky has written a delightful series of posts (originally on the economics blog Overcoming Bias) about why partisan debates are so frequently hostile and unproductive.Particularly incisive is A Fable of Science and Politics. The paper “Under What Conditions?Stereotype Threat and Prime Attributes”, Thomas Wei looked at 64 studies on race and gender and stereotype threat.The percent of studies which showed an effect (weighted by sample size) was only 58.4% – meaning in the laboratory experiments, a stereotype threat effect was produced only 58.4% of the time. Physician and author Adam Cifu of the University of Chicago talks about being a medical conservative with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. The philosopher Edmund Gettier is famous for presenting a series of problems (known as Gettier cases) designed to undermine the justified true belief account of knowledge. Limited AGI Task-based AGIs don't need unlimited cognitive and material powers to carry out their Tasks; which means their powers can potentially be limited. on SSC). It might be a big reason for p-hacking, data mining, and specification search. GitHub Gist: star and fork zackmdavis's gists by creating an account on GitHub. Registered Reports open up a new way of doing science. Historically, the deeper the recession, the faster and more vigorous the recovery. I launched this series yesterday with a post on the 2012 Tigers just as a starting point. It might also grow and spread in years to come, flaring from the social sciences into other disciplines, burning trails of … These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. Angrist argues that improvements in research design along with various econometric techniques have improved the credibility of measurement in a complex world. But before we can do anything sensible about that, we need to understand that there is a crisis in credence . As far as I can tell, this is the most troubling outbreak of the replication crisis so far. What evidence have other folks seen? Thanks JP for the reminder.]. But, in psychology, the replication crisis has engulfed Susan Fiske, Roy Baumeister, John Bargh, Carol Dweck, . Cifu encourages doctors to appreciate the complexity of medical care and the reality that many medical techniques advocated by experts are not always beneficial or cost-effective. The movie touches on existential crisis and absence of meaning; and it manages to be funny not despite it but because of it. Prologue When I finished writing “Some things I’ve learned in college,” I thought it was one of my least interesting posts to date.Surprisingly, it was one of my most viewed and has generated the most discussion of all (as measured by Reddit comments, here). ‘[R]ational systems exhibit universal drives towards self-protection, resource acquisition, replication and efficiency. Allen, B. P. (1995). A neat introduction to current problems of psychology, replication crisis, low power, p-hacking and so on. And by the way, middlebrow is not the middle of the population, it's roughly the 90th to the 99th percentile. The document was produced by a volunteer task force headed by Nancy Holland (Hamline University), in response to a petition. Search I just started watching Dexter after a very long time and I'm a bit confused as to the mom's behavior, she lets a drug dealer take her car, she doesn't continue to file for divorce because he wouldn't sign even though she could get a contested divorce, she doesn't call a parole officer or police when he takes the kids and comes into her home uninvited? On Replication Markets, volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study's results will be replicated with high power. Gwern. The replication crisis in science; why science is hard; parapsychology as “the control group for science.” 5-HTTLPR: A Pointed Review. These are quite possibly false positives and can be best seen as potential examples of the ‘reproducibility crisis', sadly common in the rest of the life and biomedical sciences, which has many instances of whole fields based on false positives. OK, some of you can, but many of you cannot:1. This index page is a categorized list of Gwern.net pages. I think Paul Hamilton's delivery made that line - both he and Johnnie nailed it. They combine results-free peer review with stringent preregistration. Plus, psychologists and sociologists are going through a big replication crisis right now that will possibly invalidate a big chunk of even the "significant" findings. Did the Great Awokening cause the mental health crisis? The best part is at the end where the guy concludes by saying the findings support diversity rather than the opposite because the historical record shows that … '' Grabby Aliens. I now have a plan for this series! Alexey Guzey. "Skeptics In The Pub" started in London in 1999 as an informal social event designed to promote fellowship and social networking among scientific skeptics, free thinkers, rationalists, science enthusi So there’s a legitimate feeling that the replication crisis strikes at the heart of psychology, or at least social psychology; it’s hard to dismiss it as a series of isolated incidents. @Andy: In Tx and Mississippi, only 19% of farmers agree that "climate change has been scientifically proven" but 60% agree that that they "expect producers in [their] area to make a significant change in the mix of crops they grow due to climate change." Klotz’s central argument is that individuals and societies systematically neglect subtraction as a means of change, and that this leaves plenty of low-hanging fruit for those willing to embrace it. We’ve written several articles about basement insulation and a cost effective approach to basement insulation using foam board and fiberglass insulation.Since writing those articles we’ve received quite a few questions about when to use a basement vapor barrier and when not to. "The replication crisis as it’s understood today may yet prove to be a passing worry or else a mild problem calling for a soft corrective. Biblioklept. [Update: this is a subconscious paraphrase, or at least extension, of Jonathan Blow’s excellent talk Preventing the Collapse of Civilization which I watched a few months ago. Anyone want to talk about their adventures on Omegle?You can find some good hypnotists on there, but also some fucking wankers in my experience.Case in point, there's a slew of pussy hypnotists that can't handle me asking them to give their asl first. (3) when, as a consequence of the above causes, there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be robbed in “peace time”, but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the “upper classes” themselves into independent historical action. It was manageable for math and science, where there was usually a right answer, but for any kind of free-form writing it was absolutely terrifying. L et's talk about the grand Slate Star Codex brouhaha.. A lot of people have already written about this. Melting Asphalt. A new replication crisis: Research that is less likely to be true is cited more UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO; View all latest news releases . Fuuka Imageboard Archiver at warosu.org. If people can "upload" to computers, they can also create many copies of themselves. 3: Thank you! If you want a shot of feel-good confirmation bias, skip to the last section, "The Good News." Summary: I review a significant amount of 2017 research related to AI Safety and offer some comments about where I am going to donate this year. The spirit of this enterprise is to identify the ways in which psychedelic states of consciousness can enhance the information processing of the mind in some ways. Solution: Registered Reports. The truth that masks work has been confirmed in another major scientific mega-study: In this narrative review, we develop an analytical framework to examine mask usage, synthesizing the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: population impact, transmission characteristics, source control, wearer protection, sociological … 130. Random Critical Analysis. To give some examples, the more quantitative areas of psychology have fewer issues with replication crisis (IQ research, the poster child for empirical quantitative psychology vs. social psychology, super left-wing and terrible stats). Along the way, the task force solicited suggestions for the code, issued an interim report, and had its work covered by Inside Higher Ed. Matt Carter, Joey Svendsen, , Bad Christian Podcast, March 24, 2021. Share your experience! The US government used to make a substance called Fogbank, a critical component in fusion bombs. The resulting failures were an ancestor of the current replication crisis, and disillusioned most scientists by the 1990s. Articles from our Users. Highbrow is the top 1%. The new year and the new decade are upon us, and with them have come the inevitable resolutions to live better in some way or another. The documentary covers social media's insidious effects on our brains, interviewing a number of former Silicon Valley executives … Of 100 studies published in top-ranking journals in 2008, 75% of social psychology experiments and half of cognitive studies failed the replication testFor more analysis, see Scott Alexander at SlateStarCodex: “If you can’t make predictions, you’re still in a crisis.” Note: this is from my personal blog here. TOF is descended from a long line of German mothers. sam[]zdat. Anyone want to talk about their adventures on Omegle?You can find some good hypnotists on there, but also some fucking wankers in my experience.Case in point, there's a slew of pussy hypnotists that can't handle me asking them to give their asl first. simply nails every aspect of the issue.” Intro In a bold revolt against the tyranny of the Lindy effect, I recently finished Leidy Klotz’s month-old book Subtract: The Untapped Science of Less. Replication Markets: replicationmarkets.com. Whereas, those complaining about a replication crisis think it’s just fraud. Likelihood functions, p-values, and the replication crisis What's the whole Bayesian-vs.-frequentist debate about? Sexual violence receives a lot of attention, but attention is not the same as taking effective action. A more substantial crisis for democracy comes from something the article doesn't discuss. xq says: September 6, 2015 at 8:05 am. This might be why we have a replication crisis in psychology (and a quieter replication crisis in medicine, and a replication crisis in empirical economics that no one has even noticed yet).It might be why nutrition science changes its recommendations every few months. Corey Wolf, Dixon Hill, and Passer Langhaus, Nice Galactic Bulge, Sweetcheeks, Briar Patch Observatory, February 21, 2021. Reading articles in Replication Crisis. It is a philosophical crisis of the nature of social psychology and cultural studies. Problem: Billions in research funding is wasted on low quality research every year. ACX. I've been taking 6000 IU per day, since I'm not exactly basking in sunlight these days so it'll improve my bone health if nothing else and even a 10% chance of it being protective against COVID has massive ROI. There are already numerous articles on the movie all over the Interwebs. refugees during the 2014–2015 European migrant crisis. This paper offers an unorthodox appraisal of empirical research bearing on the question of the low representation of women in philosophy. Note: this is from my personal blog, here. 1. Apple has many services nowadays but they don't have anything for iPhone users to share photos and videos with one another, which was a surprise since Apple hates FB, there are trillions of photos …

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